• Statistics

Statistics: everyone can run the test. Almost nobody can choose it

Statistics is unusual in that the mechanical part is genuinely easy and completely worthless. Software will run any test you like. What software will not do is tell you which test the situation demands, whether its assumptions hold, or what the result actually licenses you to say — and those three things are the whole subject.

5 min readSubjects

Study the decision, not the calculation

The recurring exam question is: here is a situation, what do you do? That is a classification problem — what kind of data, how many groups, paired or independent, what distribution — and it is trained by seeing many different situations, mixed up, which is precisely interleaving.

Revising chapter by chapter, where every question in the t-test chapter is a t-test, trains none of it. The chapter told you the answer, so you never made the decision that the exam is entirely about.

Assumptions are where the marks live

  • What does this test assume? Normality, independence, equal variance, a specific measurement scale.
  • How would I know if the assumption failed? This is the question examiners love and students never prepare for.
  • What do I do instead? The non-parametric alternative, and why it costs you power.

And the interpretation, which everyone gets wrong

A p-value is not the probability the hypothesis is true. "Not significant" is not "no effect". A significant result from a huge sample can be trivially small and useless. These misinterpretations are so common that examiners write questions specifically to catch them — and they catch almost everyone, because students learn to compute and never learn to *say what it means*.

Common questions

How do I know which statistical test to use?

It's a classification skill: what kind of data, how many groups, paired or independent, what distribution. Train it by practising mixed situations rather than working through one chapter at a time.

Why do I keep misinterpreting p-values?

Because you learned to compute them before you learned what they claim. A p-value isn't the probability your hypothesis is true, and examiners write questions specifically to catch that.

Do I need to memorise statistical formulae?

Far less than you think. Knowing which test applies, whether its assumptions hold, and what the result licenses you to say is where nearly all the marks are.

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